Open Championship
Open Championship
Jul 15, 2024The Open Championship
It was a ‘nearly but not quite’ week both at the Genesis Scottish Open and particularly at the ISCO Championship for us.
At the Scottish Open Rasmus Hojgaard was in the mix for us at the 36 hole stage, however a disappointing Saturday put pay to his chances, meanwhile Wyndham Clark & Tom Kim fell one and two places respectively short of the frame after Sunday charges.
The event itself was won by home favourite Robert McIntyre who took advantage of a fortuitous drop on the par five 16th to hit his approach to six foot and make eagle before rolling in a 22ft birdie putt on the 72nd hole to spark joyous scenes.
Meanwhile the real heartache for us came at the ISCO Championship where our 55/1 shot Rico Hoey needing par at the 72nd hole to land the trophy contrived to make bogey after finding the rocks from 135yrds out with a wedge before then losing out in a five man play off. A painful loss for us no doubt.
The man who eventually took advantage to land his first PGA title was Englishman Harry Hall who chipped in at the third play off hole to be last man standing.
So onwards we go and we come to what in many people’s eyes is the biggest week of the year with the playing of the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon in Scotland.
Situated on the West Coast of Scotland on the Ayrshire coast about eight miles North of Ayr last hosted the Open Championship in 2016 when Henrik Stenson lifted the Claret Jug after a memorable dual with Phil Mickelson.
This week will mark the 10th occasion on, which Royal Troon, will have hosted the Open and the third this century with Todd Hamilton triumphing here in 2004 prior to Stenson’s success in 2016.
As with any Major Championship there are plenty of fascinating storylines coming in, will Rory McIlroy bounce back from his Pinehurst heartache, will Scottie Scheffler’s incredible consistency translate to a second Major this year, will Fleetwood or Hatton bag a Major breakthrough on home soil or will Dechambeau or Rahm notch another Major for LIV?
Needless to say the field is a stellar one with all of the games biggest names in attention.
The market is headed up by Scottie Scheffler with the Texan then followed by Rory McIlroy who looks to bounce back from Pinehurst. This duo are then followed by Ludvig Aberg, Bryson Dechambeau and Xander Schauffele.
COURSE
Royal Troon is a par 71 measuring just under 7400yds.
The greens are a mix of bentgrass with fescue.
The course was officially designed by George Straith and Willie in 1888. More recently it has undergone an overhaul under the hands of Martin Ebert, [who also worked on Hoylake prior to last years Open] with just under 200 yards overall being added since the 2016 edition.
The course features three par fives, four par threes and 11 par fours, with the most famous hole on the course being the Par 3 eighth, the Postage Stamp. Measuring 123yds even though it will play nearer at 100yds at some point during the week it will be no push over. At the other end of the spectrum the par five sixth, measuring 623yds is the longest hole in Open history.
A typical links test the courses main defence is the wind and in principal its many penal bunkers. A little back like Pebble Beach the first half a dozen holes tend to be where the score is made before players turn in to the prevailing winds and look to ‘hang on’ coming home.
Stray too far away off the fairway the penal bunkers and fescue is there to catch you. Basically Troon is a test where precision trumps power.
As noted earlier in 2016 Stenson & Mickelson separated themselves from the field in remarkable fashion posting 20- under and 17- under respectively, while the third man home JB Holmes languished 11 shots back at 6- under!
This time around, with winds expected to keep players honest I would expect scores to be closer To Holmes’ tally than Stenson’s.
HISTORY
So let’s take a look at the winners going back to 2011.
2023 Brian Harman
2022 Cameron Smith.
2021 Collin Morikawa
2019 Shane Lowry
2018 Francesco Molinari
2017 Jordan Spieth
2016 Henrik Stenson
2015 Zach Johnson
2014 Rory McIlroy
2013 Phil Mickelson
2012 Ernie Els
2011 Darren Clarke
So what does this tell us? Well go back ten years plus and the Open had a reputation for giving us shock winners every now and then with the obvious ones springing to mind being Todd Hamilton in 04 here, Ben Curtis in 03 and Paul Lawrie in 1999.
This was put down to the various vagaries that come with the Open Championship such as the draw bias with the weather and the lucky bounces here and there.
In essence you could be forgiven for thinking that finding the winner of the Open had basically become a bit of a lottery.
In more recent years though this has not been the case and since Hamilton’s win in 2004 there have only been four winners who had not already been a member of a Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup team, Louis Oosthuizen and then more recently Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and last years winner Brian Harman. In Morikawa though of course we had a winner who made his Ryder Cup debut several months later and whose ability to win at this level had already been well and truly shown with his PGA triumph.
So if we believe that there is not going to be a huge draw bias this week [30mph winds on Thurs AM & Fri PM etc], it would seem that for the winner we should be focusing on elite players.
The next thing to consider is the recent form coming in to the event of the winners since 2011. Here are the previous three starts of the past 10 winners with the most recent shown first.
I have also noted how many wins, if any, the player had in that calendar year prior to their Open victory.
2023 B Harman 12 9 2 0 wins in the year
2022 C Smith 10 MC 48 2 wins in the year
2021 C Morikawa 71 4 2 1 win in the year
2019 S Lowry 34 28 2 1 win in the year
2018 F Molinari 2 1 25 2 wins in the year
2017 J Spieth 1 35 10 2 wins in the year
2016 H Stenson 13 1 WD 1 win in the year
2015 Z Johnson 3 6 72 0 wins in the year
2014 R McIlroy 14 76 23 1 win in the year
2013 P Mickelson 1 MC 2 2 wins in the year
2012 E Els 52 9 58 0 wins in the year
2011 D Clarke 66 MC 46 1 win in the year
So as we can see from this nine of the past 12 winners had already won an event in the same calendar year. Ten of them had notched a top 10 in their previous three starts, while seven of the last eight had posted a top three in their previous three starts. Furthermore none had missed the cut in their previous start and only three had missed a cut in any of their previous three starts.
In addition something we have seen a real pattern in of late is that Major winners tend to have produced a big finish in their previous Major start.
To expand further and Matt Fitzpatrick finished fifth at the PGA Championship while Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler both finished eighth in their Major start prior to their wins last year. If we then go back to 2021 and Morikawa was fourth in the US Open before winning at Royal St George’s, Jon Rahm was eighth in the PGA before his US Open triumph, Hideki Matsuyama was 13th in the November Masters before triumphing at Augusta in May while Bryson Dechambeau was fourth in the first post Covid Major, the PGA at Harding Park before winning the US Open shortly after.
Last year to be fair this trend has been bucked slightly as Wyndham Clark missed the cut at the PGA before his superb triumph in LA, Jon Rahm had been a lowly 34th at the Open last year before his win at Augusta and Harman had only finished 43rd at the US Open. Brooks Koepka though undoubtedly telegraphed his PGA victory with his big performance at Augusta the previous month.
This year Scottie Scheffler triumphed at Augusta after finishing 23rd at Hoylake last year however since then we have had Xander Schauffele bag the PGA after an eighth at Augusta, while Bryson Dechambeau triumphed at Pinehurst
All in all then a strong Major performance in your previous Major start looks to be a big pointer to bagging one of the games biggest trophies.
From a correlating course point of view as well as looking at the obvious other Open venues and links events played on the DP World Tour such as the Dunhill Links lets not forget the Honda Classic played on the PGA Tour, an event, which has been won by several past Open Champions including Tod Hamilton no less who triumphed here in 2004!
Next I want to take a look at how many of these Open winners had tee’d it up the week before at the Scottish Open or indeed anywhere.
The answer to this is eight, Harman, Smith, Morikawa, Stenson, McIlroy, Mickelson, Els and Clarke had all played in the Scottish the week before whilst Zach Johnson and Molinari had hopped straight of the plane from a 3rd and second respectively at the John Deere.
This leaves Spieth in 2017 who was making his first start since winning the Travelers and Lowry as the only two not to have played the week directly before their triumph.
All in all though the evidence seems to point towards the fact that a competitive run out the week before on the Scottish Links is of benefit.
Finally whilst Major Championship golf in general tends to be a young man’s game these days this is not so much the case with The Open with five of the last eleven winners being in their 40s while last years winner Harman was 36 at the time of his win.
So in summary it would seem that we should be looking for one of the game’s elite with Ryder or Presidents Cup experience who has posted a win this season and performed strongly at Pinehurst.
WEATHER FORECAST
The general vibe for the week is a mixture of sunshine and cloudy skies but dry conditions with temperatures around the mid-60s.
Wind, however, which of course is the main defence of any links track looks to be a factor with 20-25mph+ gusts forecast for all four days so I am pleased to say the players should be faced with a decent links test.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with six players this week as follows;
COLLIN MORIKAWA – 16/1 – 3pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 16th
First cab of the rank for us this week is Collin Morikawa.
Perhaps as a result of surrendering a huge lead at the season opening Sentry, two time Major Champion Morikawa lost his way for most of 2023, before coming good again with a win at the ZOZO in the Fall.
Building on this upturn the Californian has come out this year and has been a huge model of consistency doing pretty much everything but win. A look at Collin’s 2024 shows us he has notched seven top ten finishes to date, while his last six starts have seen him post nothing worse than 14th including four top four finishes. This then gives us the strong recent form so often demonstrated by Open winners.
Looking at Morikawa’s stats for this year and his strength as always is clearly in the long game, he currently sits eighth from tee to green and second in Driving Accuracy, which should both certainly be key here as he looks to plot his way around. Meanwhile his putting, which we know is normally his weak link shows positive numbers for the season.
Morikawa as we know has a Claret Jug to his name already having landed the Open at Royal St Georges so we know he can handle links conditions and lets not forget when he won the Open his putter flourished so we know he can perform on these greens.
Finally, as we’ve seen over recent years the clue to finding the winner of a Major is often found when looking at the preceding Major leaderboards, from that point of view then finishes of third, fourth and 14th in this years Majors to date shows us the Californian is banging on the door in the biggest of events again.
There is no doubt of course that you can make a case for many of the big names at the head of the market but purely on value, current form and Major pedigree Morikawa stands out as the best bet to me and I am keen to have him onside.
TYRRELL HATTON – 25/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED MC
My next pick this week is Tyrrell Hatton.
Hatton as we know made the decision to jump ship to LIV for 2024 however unlike Jon Rahm say, the change doesn’t seem to have done his game too much harm as he arrives here on the back of a win and a third place finish in his last two starts.
A Consistent performer for many years now one area Hatton has failed to make any real impact has been in the Major Championships. Last year however he played solidly in all four of them posting a best of 15th at the PGA, while this year has seen him post his first top ten at the Masters where he was ninth. In addition he was also right in the hunt after three days at Pinehurst before a disappointing Sunday saw him tumble down the board.
Not unsurprisingly one Major the Englishman has fared better in over the years is the Open as his last seven starts have seen him post four top 20 finishes including fifth and sixth place finishes, I say not unsurprisingly as we know Hatton is a lover of links golf with two Dunhill Links titles to his name.
A look at Hatton’s stats on LIV this year show us that he sits second in putting and top 15 both in Driving Accuracy and GIR so we know that his all round game is firing on all cylinders.
Despite his infamous propensity to on course outbursts Hatton is a really gritty performer who thrives on tougher tests so it should be only a matter of time until he is right in the hunt for one of the games biggest trophies. In great form at the moment then I’ll take him to make a really bold showing to land his first Major this week.
SHANE LOWRY – 33/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 6th
Next up for me this week is Shane Lowry.
Lowry who lifted the Claret Jug at Portrush in 2019 comes to life as we know whenever links golf and some breeze come in to play and from that point of view he is always going to be on our radar for the Open.
There is no doubt that The Irishman has been a tough man to follow over the past 12 months or so as he has flattered to deceive on several occasions.
2024 has seen more of the same for Shane on the PGA Tour as he has been incredibly consistent, playing the weekend on every start since his first outing of the year at the AMEX, however aside from his win in the Zurich Pairs with Rory McIlroy he has been unable to parlay any of his four top tens in to a win.
Looking at Shane’s stats for the year and it is easy to see the area of his game that has been letting him down as he sits sixth in Driving Accuracy, tenth in Approach Play but 102nd in putting. Clearly then Lowry is one good putting week away from a really big performance.
Shane’s return in the Majors this year has seen him post a sixth place finish at the PGA Championship and a creditable 19th at the US Open after a slow opening day.
Unlike last year Shane chose to skip the Scottish Open this year, something he has tended to do over the years as a whole, so his most recent start was his ninth place at The Travelers, that said unlike with some players I don’t think we need to worry too much about a lack of a links warm up for him. In addition we know from social media activity that Shane has been in the UK for a week plus now so I am sure he has found time to get the required links prep in.
I’ll take Shane then to spring back to life on his favoured type of test and make a bold bid for a second Claret Jug.
WYNDHAM CLARK – 66/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED MC
Next cab off the rank is Wyndham Clark.
For some reason that I can’t quite fathom Clark seems to be regularly underrated by the layers and this appears to me to be the case once more this week as he sits at comparable odds or even bigger than the likes of Arron Rai and Alex Noren.
Let’s look at the facts, since breaking through at Quail Hollow last year Clark has landed a Major of course at last years US Open and one further signature event at Pebble Beach.
Furthermore since the win at Pebble Beach he has notched back to back runner up finishes at Bay Hill and Sawgrass and a third place at the Heritage. Ranked currently fifth in the world he is simply at a different level to those mentioned around him in the market.
Granted Wyndham’s results have been poor in the Majors this year and he struggled in the lead up to his US Open defence. It is noticeable though that since Pinehurst his game has picked up and he has posted back to back top tens at the Travelers and Scottish Open. It may just be then that the shackles have come off now that he is no longer carrying the title of US Open Champion.
Moving on to that Scottish Open finish and regular readers will know we were onboard last week, it is therefore admittedly slightly frustrating that his Sunday closing 62 was a bit late to bring us a return. That said though of course it should put Clark in great spirits as he heads to Troon, particularly as Sunday saw him ranked 16th in approach, fourth in GIR and first on the greens.
A self-professed lover of links golf Wyndham first caught my eye as a future big performer at the Open when seventh in the correlating Honda Classic back in 2007, while in addition to his win at Pebble Beach we can take heart from a play off loss in Bermuda and his strong record at Hilton Head, to rubber stamp that he enjoys playing by the coast.
With two cuts made in his two Open appearances to date I expect Clark to improve on these efforts and deliver another big time performance in a big event this week.
RUSSELL HENLEY – 110/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 5th
Next up I can’t ignore what to me are the obvious credentials of Russell Henley.
I have long thought Henley had the game to win an Open, that said and to get the elephant in the room out of the way early, he has a woeful record in the event with a best of 20th in the past ten years with five missed cuts in his last nine starts.
Still we have to have the courage of our convictions in this game and I’ll stand by the fact that I think Russell has what it takes to thrive in these conditions.
So what am I basing this on? Well firstly of course we can take great heart from his win at PGA National in the Honda Classic in 2014, an event which has been a huge pointer to the Open over the years, and he has continued to play well there over time. Then for what its worth two of his other three wins on the PGA Tour have come by the coast in Hawaii at the Sony and in Mexico at the World Wide Technology Championship.
We know then that Russell has the game to perform strongly in the wind however in addition he has now turned himself to one of the most solid tee to green performers on the PGA tour, ranking fifth in Driving Accuracy and 32nd in approach play this season. With Troon to my thinking then likely to reward precision rather than power Henley looks to have the perfect tools to go well here. Furthermore the area that had caused him problems over recent years, the putter, has picked up considerably this year as he ranks 33rd with the flat stick.
Allowing for his all round strong play then it is not surprising that Henley’s has been a model of consistency results wise over the past year or so missing only one cut this year at Sawgrass, while last year his only missed cut from June onwards came at Hoylake.
What is even more interesting though is that the Georgia Bulldog has quietly become a big player in the Majors of late as since the start of last year he has posted a fourth at Augusta, a 14th and seventh in the US Open, the latter coming recently at Pinehurst, and a 23rd at this years PGA.
As we know the clues to a Major winner can often be found in the previous Major and I’m keen then to take Russell to build on his seventh at Pinehurst and produce a really big performance here.
AUSTIN ECKROAT – 225/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 12 - FINISHED 66th
For my final pick in this week I am going to roll the dice on Austin Eckroat at big odds.
Austin broke through for his first PGA Tour title at the Honda Classic this year and that of course gives us some immediate correlation with an event that has linked very well to the Open over the years.
The fact that Eckroat triumphed at PGA National shouldn’t come as a huge surprise as having been brought up in Oklahoma he is proficient in the wind, something, which should stand him in good stead in this weeks anticipated breezy conditions.
Since that win in Florida Austin has performed steadily missing only three cuts, one of which came at the Scottish Open last week. I am not going to get too hung up though on him missing the cut there on the number and I expect this weeks anticipated tougher conditions to be more to his liking.
Eckroat ranks strongly on tour from tee to green, sitting 34th off the tee and 18th in approach play, while he ranks 14th in accuracy. At a 143rd in putting though we can see his weak link but it may just be that a change of putting surface benefits him. All in all though his game should be suited to what Troon requires.
Ultimately Eckroat is a classy performer who we will see a lot more of in bigger events over the next few years and who I expect to take to links golf. It may well be that this is too soon for him on his first Open start to make a big impact, however he certainly wouldn’t be the first unheralded American to make the frame in The Open at huge odds and I’m happy to take a chance on him.
UPDATED 17th JULY - FIRST ROUND LEADER
ALEX NOREN -66/1 - 1pt E/W 1/5 1st 7 & JUSTIN THOMAS - 70/1 - 1pt E/W 1/5 1st 6. - FULL PLACE RETURN THOMAS - 4/7 PLACE RETURN NOREN.
With breezes forecast to increase throughout the day I shall take two from the AM wave in the First Round Leader market starting with Alex Noren. who heads out in the second group at 6.46am.
The Swede has been in strong form this year posting a host of high fiinishes on the PGA Tour. Furthermore he currently sits sixth on tour in round one scoring so he has shown a propensity to start quickly.
A strong wind player Noren boasts four top 25 finishes in his last five Open starts. Arriving on the back of a strong finish at the Scottish Open he can take advantage of his early tee time here.
Heading out at 7.52 AM we then have Justin Thomas. It is quite hard to gauge what you will get from one week to the next from JT at the moment as he either seems to be top ten or missing the cut! Last week was a perfect example of this years inconsistency as he opened with a 62 before slipping back over the rest of the week.
Ultimately though we know the American is a great shot maker who cann thrive in windy conditions and I am happy to roll the dice here at the odds that he can start quickly again for the second week running.